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Study: U.S. near corn-based ethanol tipping point
May 18, 2007
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reprintIowa State University researchers are the latest to come forward warning about the dangers of existing and forecasted levels of corn-based ethanol production in the U.S.
The Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at ISU has published a new paper that finds that U.S. retail food prices already have increased $14 billion annually. They could climb $20 billion annually if crude oil prices reach $65 to $70 per barrel and U.S. corn prices reach $4.42 per bushel, compared to $2 per bushel in mid-August 2006, the study said.
At that crude oil price range, U.S. ethanol production could reach 30 billion gallons by 2012, consuming more than half of U.S. corn, wheat and coarse grains, and triggering higher meat and poultry prices for consumers, reduced meat and poultry production, and significant reductions in grain and meat exports.
"This study clearly shows that we are reaching a tipping point, and that over-reliance on corn-based ethanol to meet mandates would further drive up retail food prices, reduce domestic meat and poultry production, and erode our meat and grain export markets," said J. Patrick Boyle, president and chief executive officer of the American Meat Institute (AMI), one of the study sponsors.
The study indicates corn yield gains would be sufficient to moderate grain price increases if corn-based ethanol production peaks at 14 billion to 15 billion gallons annually by 2010 (10 percent of U.S. gasoline consumption), when existing ethanol plants and those already under construction come online. Under that scenario, corn prices peak at $3.43 per bushel in 2009 before leveling off at $3.16 per bushel by 2016.
As for cellulosic ethanol, the study finds that a subsidy of $270 per acre would be needed to encourage producers to convert to switchgrass on land capable of growing corn [ed.: which is something of a false distinction, given that the cellulosic industry is interested in switchgrass precisely because it can be grown on soil NOT otherwise allocated for food production.]
The study also notes acres currently idled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could play a useful role in "alleviat(ing) some of the financial stress on livestock producers" (during the early years of rapid ethanol growth), as well as mitigate short-term disruptions in grain supplies.
Study funders include AMI, Grocery Manufacturers/Food Products Association, National Cattlemen's Beef Association, National Chicken Council, NGFA, National Pork Producers Council and National Turkey Federation.
The study is available at ISU's website.
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Comments
Ethanol as a problem instead of a practical solution.
Submitted on May 19th, 2007 by InterestedReaderI would rather eat my food than drive it. The use of corn ethanol for fuel is driving up the price of foodstuffs and the effect is to cause food to be more expensive. It is a mistake to continue in this direction. Now instead of solving the problem of energy dependency, we cause ourselves to be shortchanged at the grocery market. It sounds like a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul.
The idea of using ethanol as a fuel to replace gasoline has serious drawbacks that should be honestly and faily examined. On a technical side, ethanol has only about 2/3 the energy value of gasoline so that it decreases the mpg of cars, i.e., you get lower milage so must pay for more fuel. Small boat engines have reliability problems when working with a 10% mixture. There has also been a greater number of motor replacements with vehicles using a 10% mixture.
Then with the price of corn being driven up, the cost of all forms of meat dependent upon corn based feeds increases. Also, you may soon expect the cost of other agricultural products to increase as competition for land area to grow corn decreases the amount of land that is available to grow other produce.
It is a viscious cycle and there is really no winner. We just end up sacrficing our agricultural system on the alter of transportation and the only losers are the American people.
Surely, the appeal of clean electric generation along with the advance of battery and EV technology must have an increasingly greater appeal as we see problems that the trend toward ethanol is presenting.
adrianakau@aol.com
ethanol not the solution
Submitted on May 22nd, 2007 by InterestedReaderConsider this: in order to use ethanol, you need a vehicle that will run it. If the price of most of our food is going to increase, it will hurt the auto market even more. People will not have the money to buy a flex fuel vehicle. This move is truly bad for the economic environment of this country.
Yes we need to wean ourselves from foreign oil dependence, but this is not the best way to go about it.
Do the large companies have an issue with hydrogen? There must be less profit in that route for it to not even be considered as an option to explore with as much vigor as the corn solution.
For those of us who choose to keep our vehicles more than a couple of years, it will be a long time before a benefit will be seen from ethanol. In the meantime, we all will be paying higher prices so that those who can afford the flex fuel vehicles can drive them and flex fuel may not even end up being the ultimate solution.
Furthermore, if our farmland is usurped by corn rows, and livestock is going to be a hot commodity, we are going to end up importing a great deal of our sustenance. This opens us up to national security risks in our food supply where the pet food scenario is just the tip of the iceberg.
Do we really want to increase our trade deficit and risk our food supply and economy for this single solution?
Say "no" to corn ethanol
Submitted on June 5th, 2007 by InterestedReaderSide effects of corn and grain ethanol continue to be seen as undesirable consequences of placing edible foodstuffs into our fuel tanks.
First, it is causing scarcity of corn which has driven up corn prices all over. Second, it is causing scarcity of grain which has driven up beer prices in Germany. Third, it is causing even Mexican tortillas and tequilla prices to be raised. Some communities in the US where ethanol plants are being built are also predicting water shortage problems because so much water is needed to produce each gallon of ethanol.
It is like taking medicine for a problem and finding that the side effects are just as bad or worse than the ailment it was supposed to cure.
adrianakau2aol.com
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