A man described as "one of the world's most influential thinkers" today made his strongest call yet for U.S. leaders to re-think what he called "ethanol euphoria."

Pointing to rising food prices, Lester R. Brown of the Earth Policy Institute said the stage is now set for direct competition for grain between the 800 million people who own automobiles, and the world’s 2 billion poorest people.

As examples of rising food prices, Brown offered the following:

• January pork prices were up 20 percent above a year earlier; eggs were up 16 percent, while beef, which is less dependent on grain, was up 6 percent.
• In India, the overall food price index in January 2007 was 10 percent higher than a year earlier. The price of wheat, the staple food in northern India, was up 11 percent.
• The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that the wholesale price of chicken in 2007 will be 10 percent higher on average than in 2006; the price of a dozen eggs will be up a whopping 21 percent, while milk is expected to be 14 percent higher.

Some 16 percent of the 2006 U.S. grain harvest was used to produce ethanol. With 80 or so ethanol distilleries now under construction, enough to more than double existing ethanol production capacity, nearly a third of the 2008 grain harvest will be going to ethanol, according to Brown's calculations.

If left unchecked, ethanol production could take most of the U.S. grain harvest, leaving little grain to meet U.S. needs, much less those of the hundred or so countries that import grain, Brown said in a press conference today.

The United States is the leading exporter of grain, shipping more than Canada, Australia, and Argentina combined.

Fueling Washington's current grain-based "ethanol euphoria," Brown said, were difficulties to date in economically producing cellulosic ethanol from non-food feedstocks, and mounting public opposition to liquefied coal. He specifically criticized President Bush's call for 35 billion gallons of ethanol production annually in the U.S. within 10 years.

As solutions, Brown called for changes in the demand side of the equation, not just the supply side.

"A rise in auto fuel efficiency standards of 20 percent, phased in over the next decade would save as much oil as converting the entire U.S. grain harvest into ethanol," he said.

He also called for a faster shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles fueled by renewably-generated electrical power, and specifically praised Nissan, Toyota and GM for their announced pluggable hybrids. He also recognized institutional customers that have already pledged to buy 8,000 of the vehicles when they're available.

Brown said American lawmakers needed to make a decision.

"The choice is between a future of rising world food prices, spreading hunger, and growing political instability, or one of stable food prices, sharply reduced dependence on oil, and much lower carbon emissions."

Brown's comments came the same day that Broin Companies, a leading ethanol producer, announced it would construct its 30th ethanol plant, this one near Fostoria, Ohio.