Presenters at a cleantech conference predicted fuel-cell hybrids will ultimately lose to electric pluggables.
Forget hydrogen and fuel-cell cars, according a variety of speakers at an investor conference today. The future is clearly pure electric pluggable cars, they said.
“We saw a strong shift this year away from the focus on hydrogen and fuel cells as the car of the future to the electric or hybrid car. Small companies like Tesla, and even big companies like GM, with its Volt and flex fuel infrastructure, are just the beginning,” said Ira Ehrenpreis, general partner of venture firm Technology Partners. Ehrenpreis gave the opening address at the Clean-tech Investor Summit in Palm Springs, California.
Not surprisingly, presenters representing electric car vendors were among the critics of fuel cell approaches.
“I think this hydrogen thing is nonsense,” said Martin Eberhard, CEO of Tesla Motors.
“Hydrogen is not a fuel. You can’t go mine it anywhere, you have to make it. You’re typically making it with electricity and water, compressing it, putting it in a car and feeding it into a fuel cell. The efficiency of that system is about a quarter of the efficiency of an electric car today. So the same amount of electricity drives your car one quarter of the distance. And let’s not even talk about infrastructure, distribution and the dangers of a 10,000 PSI tank in your car.”
“As far as I can tell, automakers are only pursuing fuel cell cars because that’s the path they chose to meet the zero emissions mandate when it was rewritten in 2003”, said Eberhard.
“We explored making hydrogen cars, but they were expensive and complex,” said Jan-Olaf Willums, CEO of Think, another electric car company.
“There’s been very rapid development in battery technology and range. If you add quick charging capability in the future, there’d be little objection to electric, especially compared to the huge infrastructure you’d need for hydrogen.”
And it wasn’t just investors and electric car makers predicting the demise of hydrogen cars.
“Battery-driven cars would clearly have the lowest environmental costs once we bring more renewable electricity to the grid. You can’t capture carbon at the tailpipe,” said Bob Hemphill, EVP of global development for AES, an energy company serving several hundred million customers in the U.S. “And in terms of that high pressure hydrogen tank, I wouldn’t want it in my car, no thanks,” he said.
The electric-only stand flies in the face of many leading global carmakers, which have in recent weeks recently shown fuel cell concept vehicles or committed to producing them, touting their zero-emission benefits. (See Cleantech.com's coverage of fuel cell vehicles here.)
Electric car range is the big obstacle yet to be overcome, presenters agreed. “Today, we get 250 miles. Charging is done at night, like your cell phone. What we need to do to make electric cars attractive to everyone is extend the range,” said Eberhard.
Mary Nickerson of Toyota, responsible for the marketing of Toyota’s Prius hybrid and other advanced vehicles in the United States, told attendees her company considers hydrogen a long term possibility, but, “there’s still a lot of work to be done in infrastructure and packaging.”
“Companies like Toyota will benefit from advances in batteries, because our current implementation of hydrogen is in a hybrid context.”
Is there still not a considerable amount of money being spent trying to develop an automotive hydrogen ecosystem? And what about all the cheap or free hydrogen we gain to make in co-gen from other processes? We don't have to make it all with electricity, do we?
That said, am looking forward to battery breakthroughs, esp. in nanobatteries!