Wind power push could depend on incentives

May 13, 2008 - Exclusive
By David Ehrlich, Cleantech Group

The U.S. Department of Energy believes wind power could play a big part in future energy needs in the country, but significant hurdles could get in the way of the department's bold predictions.

A new report from the DOE said wind power could provide up to 20 percent of the nation's total electricity needs by 2030.

But annual installations would need to increase more than threefold to reach that milestone, and the scenario outlined in the report doesn't take into account a renewal of production tax credits for the industry, "although such policies may make this growth trajectory more likely," said the report.

"It is implicitly assumed that a stable policy environment that recognizes wind's impacts could lead to growth rates that would result in the 20 percent Wind Scenario."

That scenario would cost at least $43 billion to implement, according to the report, including the cost of new transmission lines.

The DOE said that cost would represent less than 0.06 cents per kilowatt-hour of total generation by 2030, or roughly 50 cents per month per household.

The U.S. currently leads the world in new installations of wind turbines, but it's still No. 2 behind Germany in wind power production.

Germany breezes ahead with 22.2 gigawatts, while the U.S. produces 16.8 GW.

With less than eight months left in President Bush's last term, it's unclear whether support for a boost in wind power would make it into law before a new administration takes power.

In April, Bush called for a reduction in U.S. greenhouse gases by 18 percent through 2012, and an end to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions by 2025.

At the time, some industry insiders said they were doubtful Bush would be able to push through legislation supporting renewable energy in his remaining time in office (see Cleantech industry picks apart Bush speech).

The renewable energy production tax credit, or PTC, is $19 per megawatt for wind, but the incentive is set to expire at the end of this year, along with incentives for other renewable energy sources.

Originally enacted as part of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, the tax credit has already been extended twice before.

In the report, the energy department forecasts that wind power would need to get to 304 gigawatts by 2030 to meet the 20 percent target. That's a significant boost from the industry's current production of 16.8 GW.

The DOE said the number of annual turbine installations would have to increase from approximately 2,000 in 2006 to almost 7,000 in 2017.

Even if the industry does boost production, another significant hurdle comes in the form of the transmission grid.

According to data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Wind Deployment System, more than 12,000 miles of additional transmission lines would need to be built.

Building all those new lines is expected to cost $20 billion.

The report wraps up by saying that multiple revenue streams and multiple markets for wind generation output would be increasingly important in implementing the 20 percent by 2030 scenario.

Currently, 25 states have established renewable portfolio standards, and the DOE said compliance markets, which it said have been growing rapidly in recent years, could make substantial contributions to the expansion of wind energy capacity.

The energy department also gives a hat tip to carbon trading.

The report said, "Emerging emissions markets can also be a source of revenue streams."


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